4th Wave's
Information Appliance Market Report

 

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Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Information Appliance Market

i
AUTHORS Biography

vi
4TH WAVE Company Background

viii
INTRODUCTION Study Overview
What Lies Beyond the PC?
1
   
CHAPTER 1 The Next Era of Computing
Going Beyond the PC
Characteristics of Transitions
Getting to 1 Billion Units


4
CHAPTER 2 The Innovator’s Dilemma
Disruptive Technology
Steps for Success
Failures
Application to IA Market


7
CHAPTER 3 Lessons of History
History as a Teacher
Waves of Innovation
Past Technology Shapes the Future
Easing the Burden of Life
Time Crisis
Infrastructure
Threshold Products


12
CHAPTER 4 Demographics and GDP
Scoping the Market
Population Estimates
Gross Domestic Product and the Role of Computing
Real Growth in Consumer Spending
Consumer Spending by Income Level
Worldwide GDP
GDP Implications

22
CHAPTER 5 Pricing, Volume and Markets
Pricing as a Factor in Markets
GDP Price Elasticity for Consumer Spending
Consumer Electronics
Product and Service Disconnect

30
CHAPTER 6 PC Market
Worldwide PC Market
US PC Market


37
CHAPTER 7 Key Factors
Shaping the Market
Key Factors
Challenges of the Key Factors
Embedded Microprocessor Market
MIPS are Free
32-bit Embedded Microprocessor Market
Pervasive Connectivity
Pervasive Connectivity and Location
Bringing Pervasive Connectivity to the Home
Pervasive Connectivity to the Automobile


41
CHAPTER 8 Government
Having the Government as Your Friend in the Market
Federal Communications Commission
Congress
Digital Dozen
Senator John McCain
The Effect


52
CHAPTER 9 Infrastructure
Infrastructure as Part of the Market
Diversity of the Infrastructure
Components of the IA Market
System on a Die - It is Not Just System on a Chip


57
CHAPTER 10 US Services and Media
Services as a Market
Advertising
Newspapers
Books
Television
Cable vs. Broadcast Television
Cable
DTV
Television Sets for DTV
Satellite Television
Telephone
Cellular Telephony
Television Content Market
Cellular Phone Units
5th Era Transition is Underway


62
CHAPTER 11 Platform, Products, Content and Services
Setting the Framework for the Market Emergence
It’s a Platform
Where Does the PC Fit?
Is it Product, Service or Content?
Business Models
Content


82
CHAPTER 12 Home
Home as a Platform
Penetration
Utilities in the Household
Determining the Service and Content to Product Ratio
Non-penetrating Products and Services
Casual Media
Home Networking
Openness vs. Proprietary
Out of Box Concepts
Does this Set-top Have a Future?
Home Assistant
Set-top vs. Home Assistant


90
CHAPTER 13 Market Analysis
Building on a Methodology
Driving the Market with Value for the Consumer
Product and Service Categories
Total Available Market
Key Events Drive Market Timing
Market Scenario and Estimate


106
CHAPTER 14 Assessment
Strategic Market Assessment
Technology Shortfalls
Near Term Market Opportunities
Summary of the Market Dynamics

116
     
APPENDIX    
Figure 1 Cumulative Real $ Growth  
Figure 2 Consumer Spending by Income Level, 1997  
Figure 3-5 Country Ranking by Population, GDP and GDP/Capita  
Figure 6-8 Units Vs. ASP  
Figure 9-13 US Consumer Electronics
US Consumer Electronics Market
US Consumer Television Market
 
Figure 14-18 PC Market
Worldwide Region PC Unit Share
PC Home Market
 
Figure 19 Microprocessor Market  
Figure 20 $ Per MIPS  
Figure 21-22 Advertising by Type Vs. Time Advertising Share by Type  
Figure 23-24 Number of US Newspapers
Measured Media Newspaper Advertising Spending
 
Figure 25 US Book Statistics  
Figure 26-27 US Television Stations
Television Advertising Spending
 
Figure 28 Cable and Television Revenues  
Figure 29 Television Ratings  
Figure 30-31 US Cable Subscribers
US Monthly Basic Cable Rate
 
Figure 32-33 DTV Buildout Schedule, US, 1998-2003  
Figure 34 Digital Television Sets, 1999-2005  
Figure 35 DTH Subscribers  
Figure 36-38 US Telephone Total Service Revenue
US Telephone Revenue by Type
US Telephone Revenue Share by Type
 
Figure 39 Average US Residential Rates for Local Phone Service  
Figure 40-42 US Total Cellular Phone Market
US Cellular Phone Subscribers
US Average Monthly Cellular Phone Bill
 
Figure 43-44 US Cellular Vs. LEC Phone Market Growth
US Cellular Vs. LEC Market Growth Rate
 
Figure 45 Digital Set-top Boxes  
 
Tables Information Appliance Product Categories
Market Scenario
Market Definitions
 

 


 

These pages were updated 6/22/99
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